Just by looking at goals, England seems to have had a perfect WC qualifying round so far. They scored 25 goals and conceded only 3 giving them the lead in the qualification group H. However, four wins and three draws look less impressive. Against Montenegro and the Ukraine, their strongest competitors, they won only one point each. Hence, they risk even ending up on rank three missing the play-offs. Especially the match against Ukraine on foreign ground looks crucial. Both countries are in the top ten of national teams with England only being marginal better. So here is Goalimpact's view on the teams.

England

Name	Goalimpact	Age
Goalkeeper
Joe Hart	135,4	26,4
Defender
John Terry	178,9	32,7
Ashley Cole	170,9	32,7
Joleon Lescott	144,8	31,0
Glen Johnson	134,9	29,0
Chris Smalling	128,9	23,8
Kyle Walker	124,8	23,3
Phil Jagielka	121,2	31,0
Leighton Baines	119,9	28,7
Gary Cahill	105,3	27,7
Midfielder
Frank Lampard	161,4	35,2
Steven Gerrard	151,3	33,3
Michael Carrick	143,4	32,1
Ashley Young	124,5	28,1
Jack Wilshere	121,7	21,7
Tom Cleverley	114,4	24,1
James Milner	112,3	27,7
Forward
Wayne Rooney	168,6	27,9
Theo Walcott	144,2	24,5
Daniel Sturridge	130,2	24,0
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain	127,3	20,0
Danny Welbeck	119,9	22,8
Jermain Defoe	119,6	30,9
Rickie Lambert	118,9	31,5

England has a strong team, but seems to depend still on some key old players. From all players below 30, only Wayne Rooney is truly world-class (>150), although Theo Walcott is close to join. Given how the Goalimpact currently works, the values of players beyond the age of 30 are likely to be biased upwards. So change of generation is due.

This selection is not bad. In my database there are no other English world-class players. Yet, some alternative choices of young talent according to Goalimpact would have been Kieran Gibbs (128.5) and Phil Jones (120.5).

Ukraine

Name	Goalimpact	Age
Goalkeeper
Andriy Pyatov	148,3	29,2
Defender
Oleksandr Kucher	145,4	30,9
Yaroslav Rakitskiy	143,0	24,1
Vyacheslav Shevchuk	135,3	34,3
Taras Mikhalik	133,4	29,8
Evgen Khacheridi	126,3	26,1
Artem Fedetskiy	102,0	28,4
Evgen Selin	97,4	25,3
Bogdan Butko	84,8	22,6
Midfielder
Edmar	135,1	33,2
Anatoliy Tymoshchuk	133,1	34,4
Oleg Gusev	128,3	30,4
Denys Garmash	124,5	23,4
Ruslan Rotan	124,4	31,8
Taras Stepanenko	110,7	24,1
Forward
Andriy Yarmolenko	134,6	23,9
Evgen Seleznev	131,3	28,1
Marko Devic	128,0	29,8
Roman Zozulya	123,6	23,8
Evgen Konoplyanka	120,1	23,9
Roman Bezus	98,6	22,9

Ukraine's team looks weaker at the first glance. However, this is mainly caused by few players that seem to not yet to have a Goalimpact you'd expect for a player at a World Cup. If we just look at the first eleven, this is a quite strong team. Especially the defense including the goalkeeper Pyatov looks impressive, but also midfield and attack is well staffed. Alternative selections by Goalimpact would have been Aleksandr Aliev (130.8) and Oleksiy Gay (128.3).

Summary

Two strong teams will meet, both according to Goalimpact among the best ten teams of the world. The individual class on England's first eleven is higher but some key players have past their peak performance already. Given the home advantage, Ukraine is the slight favorite in this match.

	Goalimpact	Betfair
Ukraine	37,4%	34,5%
x	30,2%	30,1%
England	32,3%	35,5%

Update 9. Sep. 3pm

If the predicted lineups of WhoScored are correct, then the odds are more in favor of Ukraine then previouly assumed. This gives Ukraine a 41.9% chance of winning. Especially the English center back looks weak, as a commentor noted.

Update 10. Sep. 8:19p.m.

The actual lineups are as follows.

Ukraine

Player	Goalimpact	Age	Team	No. Games	No. Minutes
Andriy Pyatov	148.3	29.2	Shakhtar Donetsk	223	20742
Vyacheslav Shevchuk	135.3	34.3	Shakhtar Donetsk	107	9265
Oleksandr Kucher	145.4	30.9	Shakhtar Donetsk	168	14908
Evgen Khacheridi	126.3	26.1	Dinamo Kiev	121	10548
Artem Fedetskiy	102.0	28.4	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	150	12451
Taras Stepanenko	110.7	24.1	Shakhtar Donetsk	122	9794
Oleg Gusev	128.3	30.4	Dinamo Kiev	242	17986
Edmar	135.1	33.2	Metalist Kharkov	211	18318
Roman Zozulya	123.6	23.8	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	109	5892
Andriy Yarmolenko	134.6	23.9	Dinamo Kiev	188	14922
Evgen Konoplyanka	120.1	23.9	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	139	10378
Bench
Maksim Koval	116.5	20.7	Dinamo Kiev	90	8178
Rustam Khudzhamov	93.7	30.9	FK Illichivets	86	7998
Yaroslav Rakitskiy	143.0	24.1	Shakhtar Donetsk	142	12858
Vitaliy Mandzyuk	116.5	27.6	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	135	11501
Anatoliy Tymoshchuk	133.1	34.4	Zenit St. Petersburg	331	25657
Mikola Morozyuk	99.2	25.6	Metalurh Donetsk	133	9724
Dmytro Khomchenovsky	82.8	23.4	Zorya Lugansk	67	4797
Dmytro Grechyshkin	102.8	21.9	Shakhtar Donetsk	44	3118
Denis Dedechko	90.1	26.2	Vorskla Poltava	46	3239
Evgen Seleznev	131.3	28.1	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	185	11903
Roman Bezus	98.6	22.9	Dinamo Kiev	129	8212
Marko Devic	128.0	29.8	Metalist Kharkov	194	12863

England

Player	Goalimpact	Age	Team	No. Games	No. Minutes
Joe Hart	135.4	26.4	Manchester City	284	26493
Kyle Walker	124.8	23.3	Tottenham Hotspur	184	16388
Phil Jagielka	121.2	31.0	Everton FC	381	34170
Ashley Cole	170.9	32.7	Chelsea FC	602	53886
Gary Cahill	105.3	27.7	Chelsea FC	298	27069
Jack Wilshere	121.7	21.7	Arsenal FC	117	8546
James Milner	112.3	27.7	Manchester City	462	33842
Frank Lampard	161.4	35.2	Chelsea FC	829	71478
Steven Gerrard	151.3	33.3	Liverpool FC	684	57354
Theo Walcott	144.2	24.5	Arsenal FC	312	19309
Rickie Lambert	118.9	31.5	Southampton FC	210	18266
Bench
John Ruddy	98.8	26.9	Norwich City	139	12847
Ben Foster	105.0	30.4	West Bromwich Albion	220	20429
Chris Smalling	128.9	23.8	Manchester United	111	8486
Steven Caulker	100.4	21.7	Cardiff City	149	13568
Leighton Baines	119.9	28.7	Everton FC	385	33788
Ashley Young	124.5	28.1	Manchester United	370	30300
Andros Townsend	94.8	22.1	Tottenham Hotspur	122	8358
Tom Cleverley	114.3	24.1	Manchester United	122	9232
Michael Carrick	143.4	32.1	Manchester United	519	43143
Ross Barkley	94.8	19.7	Everton FC	51	3293
Raheem Sterling	105.0	18.7	Liverpool FC	56	3701
Jermain Defoe	119.6	30.9	Tottenham Hotspur	496	32979