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Backtesting: How did the Bundesliga prediction work out so far?

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Ten match days are played this Bundesliga season already. Let's check how well the different pre-season predictions worked so far. To recall, these were the predictions (sorted by Goalimpact). The closed pre-season rank for each team is highlighted green.

No.TeamGoalimpactPointsGoal DiffBwin RankClubEloEuro Club
Index
tm.deLast YearCurrent
1Bayern München139,884,7+64,8111111
2Borussia Dortmund119,860,2+23,1222223
3FC Schalke 04119,059,2+21,3344345
4Bayer Leverkusen113,852,9+10,6433432
5VfL Wolfsburg112,350,9+7,35785116
6VfB Stuttgart107,545,0-2,8613771212
7Hannover 96106,143,4-5,6108610910
81. FSV Mainz 05105,742,9-6,413111116138
9Bor. Mönchengladbach105,642,7-6,7665884
10Hertha BSC105,442,5-7,112141315
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111899 Hoffenheim105,342,4-7,3131616121613
12Eintracht Braunschweig105,042,0-7,918181818
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18
13SC Freiburg104,641,5-8,8135913515
14Hamburger SV103,640,3-10,8810106
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151. FC Nürnberg103,540,2-11,016912141017
16Werder Bremen101,237,4-15,8111715111411
17Eintracht Frankfurt100,736,8-16,8912149614
18FC Augsburg99,235,0-19,917151717159

The yellow column in the following table shows the rank correlation of the current table with the predicted table by the different algorithms or sources.

GoalimpactBwin RankClubEloEuro Club
Index
tm.deLast Yearcurrent
Goalimpact100%78%69%83%70%50%74%
Bwin Rank100%75%87%97%75%73%
ClubElo100%92%75%91%63%
Euro Club Index100%84%82%71%
tm.de100%80%61%
Last Year100%47%
current100%

Still a close race. The Euro Club Index catched up with Goalimpact and Bwin since the last backtesting. ClubElo also gained ground and handed the red light to transfermarkt.de. Still all measures are better than just assuming the last years standings.



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