Ten match days are played this Bundesliga season already. Let's check how well the different pre-season predictions worked so far. To recall, these were the predictions (sorted by Goalimpact). The closed pre-season rank for each team is highlighted green.
The yellow column in the following table shows the rank correlation of the current table with the predicted table by the different algorithms or sources.
Still a close race. The Euro Club Index catched up with Goalimpact and Bwin since the last backtesting. ClubElo also gained ground and handed the red light to transfermarkt.de. Still all measures are better than just assuming the last years standings.
No. | Team | Goalimpact | Points | Goal Diff | Bwin Rank | ClubElo | Euro Club Index | tm.de | Last Year | Current |
1 | Bayern München | 139,8 | 84,7 | +64,8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Borussia Dortmund | 119,8 | 60,2 | +23,1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
3 | FC Schalke 04 | 119,0 | 59,2 | +21,3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 113,8 | 52,9 | +10,6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 112,3 | 50,9 | +7,3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
6 | VfB Stuttgart | 107,5 | 45,0 | -2,8 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 12 |
7 | Hannover 96 | 106,1 | 43,4 | -5,6 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 105,7 | 42,9 | -6,4 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 13 | 8 |
9 | Bor. Mönchengladbach | 105,6 | 42,7 | -6,7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
10 | Hertha BSC | 105,4 | 42,5 | -7,1 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 7 |
11 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 105,3 | 42,4 | -7,3 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 13 |
12 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 105,0 | 42,0 | -7,9 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
13 | SC Freiburg | 104,6 | 41,5 | -8,8 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
14 | Hamburger SV | 103,6 | 40,3 | -10,8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
15 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 103,5 | 40,2 | -11,0 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 17 |
16 | Werder Bremen | 101,2 | 37,4 | -15,8 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
17 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 100,7 | 36,8 | -16,8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
18 | FC Augsburg | 99,2 | 35,0 | -19,9 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 9 |
The yellow column in the following table shows the rank correlation of the current table with the predicted table by the different algorithms or sources.
Goalimpact | Bwin Rank | ClubElo | Euro Club Index | tm.de | Last Year | current | |
Goalimpact | 100% | 78% | 69% | 83% | 70% | 50% | 74% |
Bwin Rank | 100% | 75% | 87% | 97% | 75% | 73% | |
ClubElo | 100% | 92% | 75% | 91% | 63% | ||
Euro Club Index | 100% | 84% | 82% | 71% | |||
tm.de | 100% | 80% | 61% | ||||
Last Year | 100% | 47% | |||||
current | 100% |
Still a close race. The Euro Club Index catched up with Goalimpact and Bwin since the last backtesting. ClubElo also gained ground and handed the red light to transfermarkt.de. Still all measures are better than just assuming the last years standings.