The German national football team will travel to America end of this month to play against Ecuador (29th of May) and USA (2nd of June). As Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich will play the Champions League final on the 25th, they can't join at the beginning of the journey. Bayern even plays the German Cup final on June the 1st, so Löw can't use any of their players, even in the second game. This is a good opportunity for second tier players to show their qualities. And it is also a good opportunity for player rating systems to check their Löw's selections against the ratings. Here I compare Löw's vs. Goalimpact's picks.
Löw selected Rene Adler (114.8), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (114.2) and Ron-Robert Zieler (111.0). Three keepers with less then impressive Goalimpact, but especially ter Stegen is only 21 years old and is widely expected to have a great career opportunity. Still, for the self-proclaimed tradition of excellent goalkeepers, this looks meager. Non of them is above 120 yet, the level that you'd expect from someone playing Champions League.
Goalimpact rates the former national keeper Timo Hildebrand (121.2) higher, but this career average value may come from a better past. Hildebrand is already 34 years old and it is understandable to give more playing time to younger talents.
If you restrict yourself to players from the top leagues, Max Grün (111.6) and Sven Ulreich (111.5) are of comparable performance than Zieler. If you look to lower leagues, there are some promising candidates for the German national team, but Löw might want those to show their performance in the Bundesliga first, before he calls them.
Summary: Apart Löw's constant ignorance towards Weidenfeller, his selection looks plausible. I think not selecting Weidenfeller is a real mistake. It's good to have many talents, but if Neuer gets injured you may be in need of a goalkeeper that already is complete.
Goalkeeper
Manuel Neuer (160.6) is beyond doubt the best German keeper. Next best is his opponent in the Champions League final, Roman Weidenfeller (133.6), who was famously never selected for the national squad by Löw. A move that earned him a lot of criticism in the last few years.Löw selected Rene Adler (114.8), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (114.2) and Ron-Robert Zieler (111.0). Three keepers with less then impressive Goalimpact, but especially ter Stegen is only 21 years old and is widely expected to have a great career opportunity. Still, for the self-proclaimed tradition of excellent goalkeepers, this looks meager. Non of them is above 120 yet, the level that you'd expect from someone playing Champions League.
Goalimpact rates the former national keeper Timo Hildebrand (121.2) higher, but this career average value may come from a better past. Hildebrand is already 34 years old and it is understandable to give more playing time to younger talents.
If you restrict yourself to players from the top leagues, Max Grün (111.6) and Sven Ulreich (111.5) are of comparable performance than Zieler. If you look to lower leagues, there are some promising candidates for the German national team, but Löw might want those to show their performance in the Bundesliga first, before he calls them.
Summary: Apart Löw's constant ignorance towards Weidenfeller, his selection looks plausible. I think not selecting Weidenfeller is a real mistake. It's good to have many talents, but if Neuer gets injured you may be in need of a goalkeeper that already is complete.
Defenders
Center-back
The two best available center-backs, according to Goalimpact, are Arsenal's Per Mertesacker (148.7) and Schalke's Benedikt Höwedes (128.3). Both were also nominated by Löw. Heiko Westermann (114.9) and Philipp Wollscheid (111.0) was nominated, too. Goalimpact would select Stefan Reinartz (120.8) instead, who plays as center-back for Leverkusen and just qualified for Champions League next season with them. He played for virtually any youth national team and even once for the A-team. Yet, apparently Löw saw Wollscheid as the more promising talent and selected Westermann as a experienced player with 24 games for the national team.
Goalimpact also suggests Manuel Friedrich (127.3), but he's arguably too old to enter the team again, after all friendlies should be used to try new things and he may soon finish his career.
Left-back
Germany is constantly struggling to find good players for this position. Löws choices were Dennis Aogo (103.4) along with and Marcell Jansen (108.1). Aogo was once a much lauded talent, but he is now already 26 and still is not beyond doubt. His Goalimpact is also not that impressive and even dropped from its heights two years ago. Marcell Jansen has the experience of 37 games in the A national team, but hardly can be called world-class.
Goalimpact suggests that Schalke's Sead Kolasinac (127.1) would have been an option. Maybe Löw didn't select him because it is his first season in Bundesliga, but he already did a decent job there and in the Champions League. He can play both center-back and left-back, a feature that is attractive in a tournament.
Chris Löwe (125.7) is another player that Löw may not have on his list, because he plays 2nd league. He failed to get enough playing time when at Borussia Dortmund although he faces little competition in Germany as a left-back. He had back luck to be playing with the best German left-back, Marcel Schmelzer (145.1), in one team in Dortmund. Now he has the chance to be promoted with his new team Kaiserslautern to Bundesliga if they win the play-offs against Hoffenheim.
Right-back
Löw's nominee Andreas Beck (108.1) doesn't look too exciting, too. He is already 26 years old and is not going to be world-class now or in future. Anyway, because he has to play the relegation matches, he can't join the trip. Clearly, he would be no adequate substitute for Philipp Lahm (185.1), but then again, who is?
Daniel Schwaab (125.8) qualified with Leverkusen for next years Champions League. However, he was injured this season and wasn't part of the Leverkusen's first 11. So I wouldn't nominate him too.
Christian Lell (121.2), former Bayern Munich player, now plays as right-back for Levante. He's 28 - not a biblical age for a defender, but certainly not a talent with a promising future either. Given that there are many right-backs to chose from, I maybe wouldn't nominate him either. Clemens Fritz (120.4) played seems beyond his peak and aged 32 not interesting for national team any longer.
Sebastian Jung (112.5), on the other hand has a respectable Goalimpact given his age of 22, better than Beck in any case. He seems to be just the kind of talent that one should guide towards the national team in friendlies. Not nominating him seems like a missed opportunity to me.
Midfield
Defensive Midfield
Löw nominated the twins Lars Bender (115.2) and Sven Bender (124.0), Stefan Reinartz (120.8) and Roman Neustädter (110.4). All are reasonable choices according to Goalimpact with the exception of Neustädter that, so far, couldn't convince the algorithm of his merits. An alternative selection would be Simon Rolfes (130.9), but he is 31 and it's unlikely Löw will ever nominate him for the team as he prefers young players as new entries. Robin Knoche (116.9) would be one of them. 20 years old and promising Goalimpact. Yet a nomination is too early for him. He just managed to settle in the A team of Wolfsburg.
Left Wing
Kevin Großkreutz (129.2) and Lukas Podolski (117.3) are the Löw's picks. Goalimpact would select Großkreutz, too, but for Podolski there are other options like Lewis Holtby (120.3), Tottenham Hotspur, or Markus Steinhöfer (118.9), FC Basel. The later is maybe considered too old again to make a new entry to the national team, despite playing a good season and reaching the semi-final of the Europa League. Holtby would be a more creative alternative to Podolski.
Right Wing
Löw's choice, Nicolai Müller (103.1), is not having the Goalimpact yet you'd expect from a German national player. It's not clear to me what led to his nomination. He isn't very young either. Being 25 years old, he's unlikely to ever become a substitute for Thomas Müller. Instead of Nicolai, Gonzalo Castro (127.0) would be a better choice. He is of the same age, but has more impact. However, he's injured.
Again, Markus Steinhöfer (118.9), would be an option as he can play on both wings. Andre Schürrle (115.1) comes next and he was nominated by Löw, too. So this seems a good choice.
There are not many options outside of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Nürnberg's Timo Gebhart (111.8) is a possibility, but as the others he is good but not outstanding.
Offensive Midfield
Julian Draxler (128.3), Sidney Sam (119.2), and Aaron Hunt (113.3) are three good choices by Löw. Draxler is without doubt one of the biggest talents in German football. Difficult to believe he is still only 19 years old.
Again, Lewis Holtby (120.3) would have been another option, especially instead of Hunt. I'd love to see the 18 years old Maximilian Arnold (129.5) play for the national team, but I can understand Löw if we thinks that 400 Bundesliga minutes in 6 matches are not enough experience for the national team, even though Arnold scored three times already. He could play left wing, too.
Forward
Also he's not getting any younger, the nomination of Miroslav Klose (157.4) is clear. He still is playing outstanding despite some injuries this season. At the beginning of this month he even scored five times against Bologna. Max Kruse (105.4) is playing a good season with Freiburg, with which he qualified for the Europa League - against all odds.
However, Kruse is not the obvious choice. According to Goalimpact Kevin Kuranyi (136.8) is better, but he will never again play for the national team because of a lack of social competence. Next in the list is Stefan Kießling (128.0) a player that scores about as often as he is ignored by Löw. This season nobody scored more goals than he did and he had also 10 assists, making him lead the scorer table, too.
Mike Hanke (108.1) is ok, but not particularly a new try. There are forwards that have a higher Goalimpact than Kruse, but none of them settled in Bundesliga so far. Stefan Kutschke (121.2) is close to that. He played in the fourth German League, but will move to Wolfsburg next season.
Summary
Goalimpact would more or less select similar to Löw. Lewis Holtby would have been an alternative for Hunt. Kießling and Weidenfeller are ignored as always. There are promising goalkeeper talents, but the ignorance towards Weidenfeller results in a strong the dependence on Neuer and you could make a similar case for the Kießling. Sebastian Jung would have been a good choice as right-back.
The analysis shows that the national team heavily depends on the players of the two top teams. Without them, on some positions the team is not having sufficient depth. There are many talents, but not all seem to be good enough to win a World Cup just now.
The analysis shows that the national team heavily depends on the players of the two top teams. Without them, on some positions the team is not having sufficient depth. There are many talents, but not all seem to be good enough to win a World Cup just now.