Following my post on the top young talents of the world, Simon Gleave asked a good question
We can categorize the players on this list according to if they were listed as talents by tm.de (proxied by a historic market value higher or equal than 1 million Euro) and whether they turned out to be really top-class (proxied by current market value greather or equal than 5 million Euro). Hence we have 4 sets as follows.
15 out of 25 players on the list were also listed as talents by transfermarkt. Out of those 15, 10 became top-class players with a current market values above 5M€. Three, Gareth Bale, Hinguain and Agüero are super stars now.
60% of the player that were not listed as talents by transfermarkt, also became top-class players. Most notably, the Bender brothers and Neven Subotic were identified well before they were transfer targets by top-notch Bundesliga teams.
What to make from this? If you'd buy all tm.de talents on the list in August 2007 at the then listed prices, you have to pay 116,850,000 € and if you sell them today, they earn you 295,675,000 €. This is unsurprising a lot more as those players are now in their prime age and hence worth more than when 18yo. If we take this as the normal value development, then we can expect a value increase of 150% in the time interval fom 18yo to 25yo.
Doing the same math for the not tm.de listed players yield some other numbers. Buying all 10 players that are listed by Goalimpact, but not by transfermarkt, would costs you 3,800,000 €. Selling them now would earn you 117,525,000 €. An increase in value of roughly 3000%. You don't need to be rich to buy great players, being smart is good enough.
If you are a manager or trainer of a football team and you are interested in us assisting you in scouting players, please drop us an email: info@goalimpact.com
@GoalImpact This is great stuff but what would make it even better would be to see previous year's lists. Do you have one for, say, 2000?
— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) March 8, 2014Ok. That is agood way of checking if the rating is working. We didn't choose 2000, but 2007 as reference year due to better data availability. Here is the list of the top 25 talents according to Goalimpact that we would have published based on results up to and including season 2006/2007.| Rank | Player | Team | GoalImpact | PeakGI | tm.de then | tm.de now | League |
| 1 | Jozy Altidore | New York RB | 85,7 | 148,5 | 1.750.000 € | 6.000.000 € | Major League Soccer |
| 2 | Neven Subotic | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 96,8 | 143,1 | 50.000 € | 20.000.000 € | Bundesliga |
| 3 | Gareth Bale | Southampton FC | 88,9 | 141,9 | 9.500.000 € | 80.000.000 € | Championship |
| 4 | Daniel Reiche | VfL Wolfsburg II | 103,8 | 141,8 | 150.000 € | 200.000 € | Regionalliga Nord |
| 5 | Anderson | FC Porto | 102,8 | 141,7 | 25.000.000 € | 6.500.000 € | Primeira Liga |
| 6 | Sidnei | Internacional | 89,1 | 141,4 | 1.500.000 € | 1.500.000 € | Serie A |
| 7 | Éver Banega | Boca Juniors | 99,7 | 140,9 | 15.000.000 € | 12.000.000 € | AG - Primera Division |
| 8 | Ismaïl Aissati | FC Twente | 97,5 | 140,3 | 2.000.000 € | 3.800.000 € | Eredivisie |
| 9 | Pato | Internacional | 83,1 | 139,7 | 4.000.000 € | 12.000.000 € | Serie A |
| 10 | Daniel Schwaab | SC Freiburg | 96,5 | 139,5 | 700.000 € | 3.500.000 € | 2. Bundesliga |
| 11 | Edgar Mejía | Deportivo Guadalajara | 97,6 | 139,4 | 100.000 € | 750.000 € | MX - Primera Division |
| 12 | David Vržogic | Borussia Dortmund II | 84,9 | 139,3 | 200.000 € | 75.000 € | Regionalliga Nord |
| 13 | Pablo Piatti | Estudiantes | 89,5 | 139,3 | 4.500.000 € | 4.000.000 € | Primera Division |
| 14 | Jonny Evans | Sunderland AFC | 103,2 | 138,9 | 500.000 € | 13.000.000 € | Championship |
| 15 | Nicklas Bendtner | Birmingham City | 102,6 | 138,8 | 1.500.000 € | 4.000.000 € | Championship |
| 16 | Ivan Rakitic | FC Basel | 100,9 | 138,7 | 5.000.000 € | 20.000.000 € | Super League |
| 17 | Sven Bender | TSV 1860 München II | 87,9 | 138,5 | 350.000 € | 18.000.000 € | Regionalliga Süd |
| 18 | Theo Walcott | Arsenal FC | 88,9 | 138,2 | 6.700.000 € | 28.000.000 € | Premier League |
| 19 | Karim Benzema | Olympique Lyon | 102,7 | 138,0 | 5.000.000 € | 34.000.000 € | Ligue 1 |
| 20 | Kun Agüero | Atletico Madrid | 96,5 | 137,0 | 20.000.000 € | 45.000.000 € | Primera Division |
| 21 | Lars Bender | TSV 1860 München II | 85,1 | 135,7 | 450.000 € | 22.000.000 € | Regionalliga Süd |
| 22 | Axel Witsel | Standard Liege | 88,3 | 135,6 | 400.000 € | 35.000.000 € | Eerste klasse |
| 23 | Gonzalo Higuaín | Real Madrid | 100,1 | 135,1 | 14.300.000 € | 38.000.000 € | Primera Division |
| 24 | Victor Anichebe | Everton FC | 95,7 | 135,0 | 900.000 € | 5.000.000 € | Premier League |
| 25 | Patricio Araujo | Deportivo Guadalajara | 98,3 | 134,8 | 1.100.000 € | 875.000 € | MX - Primera Division |
We can categorize the players on this list according to if they were listed as talents by tm.de (proxied by a historic market value higher or equal than 1 million Euro) and whether they turned out to be really top-class (proxied by current market value greather or equal than 5 million Euro). Hence we have 4 sets as follows.
tm.de now>=5M€ | tm.de now<5M€ | |
tm.de then >=1M€ | 10 | 5 |
tm.de then <1M€ | 6 | 4 |
15 out of 25 players on the list were also listed as talents by transfermarkt. Out of those 15, 10 became top-class players with a current market values above 5M€. Three, Gareth Bale, Hinguain and Agüero are super stars now.
 |
Neven Subotic could have been bought by you one year before Dormund did it. |
What to make from this? If you'd buy all tm.de talents on the list in August 2007 at the then listed prices, you have to pay 116,850,000 € and if you sell them today, they earn you 295,675,000 €. This is unsurprising a lot more as those players are now in their prime age and hence worth more than when 18yo. If we take this as the normal value development, then we can expect a value increase of 150% in the time interval fom 18yo to 25yo.
Doing the same math for the not tm.de listed players yield some other numbers. Buying all 10 players that are listed by Goalimpact, but not by transfermarkt, would costs you 3,800,000 €. Selling them now would earn you 117,525,000 €. An increase in value of roughly 3000%. You don't need to be rich to buy great players, being smart is good enough.
If you are a manager or trainer of a football team and you are interested in us assisting you in scouting players, please drop us an email: info@goalimpact.com